China's estimated crude oil inventory changes

I July 2025: Analysts estimate that China has increased crude oil inventories by approximately 530,000 barrels per day (bpd).

August 2025: The estimated inventory increase rose to approximately 1.01 million bpd, nearly double the July rate. This estimate is based on:

* Crude oil imports: 11.65 million barrels per day

* Domestic production: 4.30 million barrels per day

* Refinery throughput: 14.94 million barrels per day

* Excess available for storage: ≈1.01 million barrels per day

Total Inventory Estimates

Estimates based on satellite data provided by analyst firms indicate that by August 2025, China's combined commercial and strategic crude oil reserves will reach approximately:

* 1.23 billion barrels (commercial + strategic petroleum reserve)

Analysts also estimated the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) to be approximately 213 million barrels, although this figure is uncertain as China has not officially reported SPR volumes since 2017.

Context

The International Energy Agency reported that global observed oil inventories increased in mid-2025, with Chinese crude stockpiles being a key driver. The inventory build reflects relatively weak domestic demand growth, attractive oil prices, and continued imports despite declining refinery utilization rates.

By ZTRone Resources team.