Record-Breaking Naphtha Imports Fuel China's Boom

Demand Growth Outlook

• China’s light naphtha demand is set to expand significantly in 2025–2026, driven primarily by its huge petrochemical sector, especially steam crackers that use naphtha as a core feedstock. According to industry and agency forecasts, naphtha demand in China is expected to grow by about 6% in 2025 and roughly 8.6% in 2026, outpacing demand growth for alternative feedstocks like propane and ethane. 

Record Import Levels

• To meet that growth, China’s naphtha imports are forecast to hit all-time highs in 2025, potentially reaching 15–17 million metric tons, up sharply from around 12 million tons in 2024. This reflects both the rising intrinsic demand and a strategic effort to diversify feedstock supply sources amid trade-related disruptions in U.S. propane/ethane shipments. 

Drivers of Rising Demand

• New petrochemical capacity — Multiple new ethylene and polymer plants are coming online by late 2025 and into 2026, increasing feedstock needs. 

• Shift from alternative feedstocks — Trade tensions and supply uncertainties have prompted some Chinese operators to pivot back toward naphtha from U.S. ethane/propane. 

• Maintained cracker utilization — Even when crude oil demand softens, strong throughput at crackers has kept naphtha use steady or rising. 

Seasonal and Market Factors

• According to OPEC forecasts, naphtha demand in China tends to increase seasonally toward late 2025 and continue into early 2026, reflecting typical petrochemical feedstock patterns. 

• The doubling of naphtha import quota issued for 2025 (nearly 24 million tons) indicates China’s proactive procurement strategy to secure sufficient feedstock and buffer against volatility. 

Market Impacts

• Refinery margins for naphtha in Asia have strengthened due to strong Chinese demand, providing support to refiners and traders. 

• Higher naphtha imports also cushion broader oil demand fluctuations in China when transport fuels are weak, highlighting naphtha’s relative resilience. 

Summary: In 2025 and 2026, China’s light naphtha demand is expanding robustly due to petrochemical sector growth, revamped feedstock strategies amid global trade shifts, and increased import activity. Growth rates above 6%–8% are expected, with imports climbing to record volumes to support new cracker capacities and secure supply reliability.

Best Wishes,

Team of ZTRONE Resources